Some are saying this game is more anticipated than the border war. Guys, I’m joking; we can all acknowledge that this has never truly been a rivalry game, especially since it lacks that true hate.

Missouri is 5-2 coming off of its bye week, along with Arkansas coming off theirs as well. In terms of its last games, two very different stories. Missouri played a very good Ole Miss team and got taken to the woodshed, 31-3. The Hogs played against a Vanderbilt team that is begging for Diego Pavia to be eligible again, as the Hogs got their first SEC win, 31-21.

Ahmad Hardy comes back for Mizzou this game, which is a big boost for the Tigers’ run game. The star running back suffered a gunshot to the femur in May and, after a good week of practice, is slated to play this evening. To what capacity? I couldn’t tell you.

We know for sure that Ahmad Hardy won’t start, so I would expect under 12-14 carries tonight.

The good news for Missouri is that i’m not sure Ahmad Hardy needs to touch the field. Arkansas is just bad. The Hogs have shown glimpses, but minor ones at that.

The Razorbacks rank 65th in passing offense, averaging 231.4 yards per game through the air. But wait, there’s more. Arkansas’ rushing attack has been putrid, ranking 120th nationally, with just 111.6 yards per game.

I could go through more stats, but I’ll just tell you, it’s not looking too good in the Silverfield era so far.

On paper, Missouri should win this game. In fact, Missouri should win this game by two possessions or more. But weird things happen in the SEC, and the parity is at an all-time high, seemingly. Here are my three keys to the game for Missouri to keep this from getting interesting, as well as simply winning the game:

1. Get a consistent run game going:

A run game can not depend on explosive plays. I have said this for weeks, and I probably sound like a broken drum. Missouri’s run game was struggling for most of this season, but the explosive plays did quite the job at inflating those numbers. Do explosive plays count? Sure. But should you count on breaking a 50-plus-yard run every game? No.

What Missouri needs to get back to is finding those three- to four-yard gains on first-down scenarios. Against Ole Miss, it felt like all too often, Missouri was putting themselves in 2nd-and-10s or more.

For the Tigers, getting a consistent three yards and a good push on the offensive line will go a mighty long way. I don’t know about you guys, but I’d much rather get a single every at-bat than strike out 45 times and eventually hit a home run.

2. Stop KJ Jackson and you win:

The Arkansas run game is absolutely abysmal. If you stop KJ Jackson and his favorite wide receiver, Chris Marshall, there’s a very good likelihood that you will win the game.

Granted, things started to look up for the Razorbacks against Vanderbilt. Wide receiver Antonio Jordan hauled in 5 passes for 74 yards. If Arkansas can get more consistent contribution from him, they become a much tougher cover.

3. Just play clean:

This team is astronomically different on the road. At least, it can feel that way. I think the biggest factor that will lead to a nice blowout, or a 4th quarter ballgame, will be the turnover margin and penalties.

Mizzou is good enough to win by a sizeable margin if it plays clean. There’s enough of a gap between these two teams. But if Missouri gives themselves self-inflicted wounds, it could be a close one.

My prediction:

Missouri 34

Arkansas 17