This Saturday is a pivotal day for the Missouri football program. Missouri has seen 2 and a half years of success, with a 26-5 record in it’s last 31 games. It has proved ityself to be one of the SEC’s best. The problem however? It has not won the big one. Sure, wins against Tennessee, Oklahoma, Florida, and Ohio State are nice. Yet, no wins against Alabama or Georgia forces a slight crack in the public perception of the program. This Saturday, Eli Drinkwitz has the opportunity to change the notion.

This game has the Magni scope on it. SEC Nation will be in town for the second time this season, this time outside of Mizzou Arena for anyone planning on attending. Heck, even the Josh Pate fall tour will be here. Joe Tessitore will be on the call and the game will own the 11 AM kickoff spot. It just means more.

Missouri comes into this game 5-0, with its premier wins to this point being Kansas and South Carolina. The Tigers sit at #14 in the AP poll and are the only team in all of college football to be top 5 in both total offense and total defense. Ahmad Hardy is on Heisman watchlists and Beau Pribula is being consistently praised as “better than advertised.” The Tigers feature the #1 rush defense in the country and is having one of the best all-around seasons out of any team in the country.

Alabama comes into this game 4-1 and has arguably looked like the best team in the conference so far. Alabama started off the year on a sour note, with a loss against Florida State that left fans wondering if Kalen DeBoer should even have a job. In rapid fashion, the Tide flipped the switch, and thus the narrative changed. With blowout wins against UL-Monroe and Wisconsin, and signature wins against Georgia on the road and Vandy at home, the Tide have shown themselves as the same old Bama.

What’s made the Tide so dangerous in that four-game stretch? Look no further than the most important position on the field, quarterback Ty Simpson. Simpson has thrown for 1,478 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 1 interception. That’s Ludacris. A 13-1 Td to interception ratio is virtually unheard of. What aids Simpson, is one of the best receiving corps in the country.

Germie Bernard has been Simpson’s favorite and most reliable target, hauling in 25 receptions for 392 yards and 5 touchdowns. This gives Bernard a staggering 15.7 yards per catch. Star sophomore, Ryan Williams, has been dangerous at times and is looking to have his signature game at any point. Williams has brought in 21 balls for 336 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has an average of 16 yards per reception. The Tide receiving core has been one of the best, no doubt about it.

The Alabama defense has been quite good this season, despite showing cracks in the run defense. Alabama holds the #1 spot in the country, in one of the most important statistics: turnover margin. The Bama offense does its job by not turning the ball over, and the Bama defense responds by forcing turnovers. Alabama also ranks third in the country in pass defense, only giving up 130 yards per game. So where does the Tide defense struggle? Rush defense. Alabama ranks 70th in the country, giving up 155 yards on the ground per game. Something to keep in mind.

This game is so hard to predict. It’s even harder to break down. Why, you may ask? Because it’s a strength against strength kind of game, with both teams’ weaknesses playing into the opponent’s strength. Missouri’s pass defense has been suspect in the department of explosive plays, whilst the Tide rush defense plays into the hand of a superb Tigers rushing attack. To me, it sounds like the potential for a shootout. But, what if either team fixes it’s weakness? What do the scripted drives look like? That’s when it gets fun.

That leads us the fun part. How can Missouri win the big one? Let’s break down 3 things Missouri must do to achieve glory this Saturday.

1. Win the time of possession battle: Run Ahmad Hardy, all day, all night, into the next day, etc. Again, this game is all about the matchup. The Bama defense has struggled against the run, and Ahmad Hardy leads the country with 730 yards on the season. You also want to have long, methodical drives if you’re Missouri, because you want to keep an explosive Tide offense off of the field. How does this look practically? Take what the defense gives you, burn the play clock, and litter in play action. This leads into our second point, which directly correlates
2. Start fast: I know that starting fast can be self-explanatory and a tad obvious. Nobody wants to go three-and-out on their first drive and give up a TD on the first drive. However, with Missouri’s path to victory heavily relying on the ground game, Missouri cannot play from behind early. I cannot stress enough the importance of the first drive of the game, as I believe it will shape how the rest of the game goes. Missouri must set the tone and show that it’s not scared. The first drive needs to be a 10-play, 75-yard drive that burns six minutes or more. No question. Ahmad Hardy must insert himself into this game early, and Missouri must put Alabama under pressure early.

3. Improved zone coverage that limits explosives: This is where Alabama gives the biggest threat to Missouri, and if the Tigers can’t generate pressure, this game could take a turn for the worse. We watched Jalon Daniels throw numerous bombs against Missouri, even missing what would have been a crucial late touchdown. LaNorris Sellers exposed the cracks, throwing for 302 yards. I mean, Sellers completed a 34-yard pass on 3rd and 37. The scary thing is, the cracks are showing, and Missouri hasn’t played anybody remotely close to the talent level of Alabama. With Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard, the Tigers must keep everything in front of them and prevent deep balls that will give the Tide easy points and quick momentum. To stop this, the Tigers must generate pressure and force Alabama into obvious passing situations.

My prediction:

Bama- 27

Mizzou- 31

Before writing this, I was 100% going to pick Alabama. In fact, my mind might change again tomorrow. The reason I pick Mizzou to win is not necessarily that I think Missouri is the better team, but more so that the Tigers have been so close to winning the big one and it’s about time they do. This is just a hunch, and at the end of the day, this game is a coin flip.