On Saturday night, Missouri opens up conference play against the Gamecocks, looking to take back the Mayor’s Cup. Last season, the Tigers went on the road and played a thriller. Missouri made a late comeback, even going as far as to take the lead with just 1:10 left to play, after a deep ball to Luther Burden for a touchdown, making it 30-27.

However, LaNorris Sellers would lead the Gamecocks down the field rather quickly, with a 39-yard pass to set South Carolina up just near the red zone. From there, a six-yard run and a 15-yard touchdown pass would ice the game with just 15 seconds to go, with an interception on the ensuing drive. A heartbreaker for Missouri, no doubt

Things this year, though, feel much different. As opposed to last year, Missouri is the clear favorite in the betting odds, not South Carolina. Also, the availability of LaNorris Sellers continues to loom, with Sellers suffering a supposed concussion in the Gamecocks’ last matchup against Vanderbilt. Sellers was listed as “Probable” on the official South Carolina injury report. If Sellers is unable to go, which likely won’t happen, backup QB Luke Doty will likely start, as he was the backup against Vanderbilt.

So how do these teams match up? Where does Missouri have the edge? Let’s break it down.

South Carolina defense VS Missouri offense: Edge= Missouri

Heading into this season, many experts thought that the Missouri defense was going to be the strength of the team. Through three games, the offense has certainly made it’s case as to why that’s not the case. Beau Pribula has been better than advertised, as he has thrown for 791 yards, 7 touchdowns, 1 interception, and, according to ESPN, he has an 83.9 QBR, the 13th best in the country. That’ll do.

Running back Ahmad Hardy leads the SEC in rushing so far, with 462 yards. In all three games, Hardy has broken the 100-yard threshold, especially against Louisiana, where he’d run for 250 yards on the day. Hardy would also tack on three touchdowns.

The Tigers’ receiving room has looked solid so far, with Kevin Coleman Jr inserting himself as the team’s #1 receiver. Coleman has 24 receptions for 258 yards, with one touchdown as well. Marquis Johnson, Joshua Manning, Daniel Blood, Donovan Olugbode, Brett Norfleet, and Jordon Harris have all contributed as well, showing off the impressive depth that the Tigers have.

The South Carolina defense has been solid but has also struggled at times. Dylan Stewart is obviously the stand-out, as he is a future 1st round NFL draft pick, but outside of that, who do the Gamecocks have? Linebacker/edge rusher, Bryan Thomas Jr is Stewart’s partner in crime, as he has been one of the most productive. Thomas Jr has tallied a sack, as well as nine total tackles, so far this season.

Linebacker DQ Smith has been the most productive tackler for the Gamecocks, tallying 18 so far this season. Fred Johnson, a fellow linebacker, has been solid as well. The South Carolina secondary has been suspect so far, struggling against Vanderbilt last week.

So, where does Missouri have the edge? How do they attack the Gamecock defense? Run the dang ball. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Ahmad Hardy has been virtually untacklable. In the game against Louisiana, Hardy accumulated 167 yards after contact, showing off his power. He also had a 71-yard touchdown run, where he showcased his speed down the sideline.

South Carolina gave up 146 yards on the ground against Vanderbilt, and that’s against an offense that you know the run is inevitable. With Missouri’s consistent threat to throw the ball, that opens up things for Hardy and Jamal Roberts as well. I think if the Tigers’ O-line can play well, running the ball will prove impactful. I also think that the Missouri wideouts have an advantage over the South Carolina corners.

Missouri defense vs South Carolina offense:

Not much needs to be said here in all honesty. The South Carolina offense has a chance to break out at any moment. They have the tools to be a top-half offense in the SEC, especially with LaNorris Sellers at the helm. However, it hasn’t. Sellers has underperformed and South Carolina virtually hasn’t had a run game through the first three games. Nyck Harbor is the marquee wideout on the team, but he hasn’t been utilized often, which has brought heat upon Gamecocks offensive coordinator, Mike Shula.

Against Vanderbilt, things seemed to be on the rise, as the Gamecock offense would score on its first possession and march down the field on the ensuing one. However, Sellers would throw a pick. After that, Sellers would get hurt, and the offense took a headfirst dive off of a cliff. South Carolina only managed to put up 24 on a bad Virginia Tech team, with one of the three touchdowns being a punt return.

When it comes to the South Carolina offensive line, there’s a lot to be desired. The Gamecocks have allowed 8 sacks this season, with Sellers constantly running around evading the rush. Left tackle Josiah Thompson has been a bright spot, but apart from that, theirs not much to write home about.

For the Tiger defense, the unit has been excellent the last two games when it comes to stopping the run. In week two against Kansas, Mizzou held the Jayhawks to a measly 31 yards on the ground. Against Louisiana, the Tigers allowed 137, but that also accounts for an 84-yard touchdown run. So, apart from that, the Tigers held the Cajuns’ to just 53 yards on the ground.

Speaking of that game against Louisiana, Missouri allowed… four passing yards. No, that’s not a typo. In the previous game, Corey Batoon made the adjustment to play plenty of press man-to-man after an underwhelming performance against Kansas. It paid dividends.

Overall, I’m not sure if you can trust this South Carolina offense yet. I don’t think they’ve played to their full potential, and we don’t quite know what that looks like. Missouri’s defense has been a strength, and they will surely rely on it to try and win this game, which is why I give them the edge here.

Missouri VS South Carolina special teams: South Carolina, comfortably

This is the Gamecocks’ calling card. If South Carolina wants to have a shot of pulling off the upset, the special teams unit has to be elite, which so far through three weeks, they have been. So far, three punt return touchdowns in three games. Also, Nyck Harbor is electric on kickoffs. South Carolina also has a competent kicker.

The reason I give South Carolina the edge here, especially with the label of “comfortably,” is that Missouri has not been inspiring at all. Punting has been average, nothing to complain about. But that’s the problem with most aspects of special teams for Mizzou… It’s just average. ‘It’s starting kicker also got injured, and it’s a true freshman who has already missed a kick.

In every other aspect of this game, Missouri has the edge. Overall, Missouri is the more talented team and well-rounded squad. However, you have to be honest and say this is where the Gamecocks thrive and can make some noise in this game.

So, for my prediction. This will be a close game, closer than Mizzou fans would like. It has nothing to do with talent, but everything to do with the desperation of South Carolina. The Gamecocks CANNOT lose, if it wants to reach it’s preseason goal of the college football playoff. These games also have been historically weird.

Mizzou- 30

South Carolina- 24